Is Boeing Stock A Buy As China Readies For The Return Of The 737 Max?

2 years ago 235

Boeing (BA) has faced a turbulent 2 years and issues proceed arsenic it precocious reported a larger-than-expected third-quarter loss. Is Boeing banal a bully bargain now? Investors should look astatine the aerospace giant's fundamentals and the BA banal chart.

The once-troubled  737 Max returned to work successful the U.S. successful 2020 and successful Europe successful January. But Chinese regulators, the archetypal to crushed the Max backmost successful 2019, person been dilatory to recertify the 737 Max adjacent arsenic test flights started successful aboriginal August.

But much clarity is coming. On Dec. 2, the Civil Aviation Administration of China issued an airworthiness directive connected the 737 Max, giving a runway for the jet's instrumentality to commercialized service. However, it doesn't outline a timeframe for erstwhile the pitchy mightiness return.

Boeing Stock Fundamental Analysis

On Oct. 27, the Dow Jones aerospace elephantine reported a Q3 loss of 60 cents per stock connected gross of $15.3 billion. FactSet analysts expected a Boeing nonaccomplishment of 20 cents per stock connected gross of $16.37 billion.

Boeing recorded $183 cardinal successful "abnormal costs" during the 4th astatine its commercialized aviation part amid continued accumulation issues with the 787 Dreamliner. It expects the debased accumulation complaint and rework connected the craft to outgo $1 cardinal successful total.

For Q3, Boeing delivered 85 commercialized aircraft, but nary Dreamliners owed to mounting accumulation problems.

As orders emergence Boeing is outlining plans to increase 737 Max output to arsenic galore arsenic 42 jets a period successful autumn 2022, manufacture sources told Reuters. Boeing has publically said it plans to boost accumulation steadily from its existent little accumulation complaint to deed 31 jets per period successful March 2022.

On Nov. 9, Boeing announced that it delivered 27 craft successful October. It had 10 gross orders, including 8 for 737 Max jets.

Boeing's earnings-per-share maturation has averaged 0% implicit the past 3 years, according to IBD Stock Checkup. Revenue has contracted by 19% connected mean implicit the past 3 years.


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Boeing Stock Technical Analysis

BA banal has been connected a chaotic thrust owed to the Boeing 737 Max fallout and the Covid-19 pandemic.

BA banal is presently beneath its downward sloping 50-day and 200-day lines, according to MarketSmith analysis. The emergence of the omicron Covid-19 variant has weighed connected the wide market.

Boeing banal is showing anemic CAN SLIM cardinal metrics, including a mediocre 22 Composite Rating retired of a best-possible 99, and a 53 EPS rating.


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Defense, Space Segments

While Boeing's commercialized concern faces immoderate headwinds, its defence concern is starting to spot immoderate affirmative trends acknowledgment to overseas subject sales.

The Australian Navy and Air Force ordered 11 much P-8 maritime surveillance craft connected April 1. Germany became the eighth customer, ordering 5 P-8s successful July. The United Arab Emirates volition person Boeing EA-18G Growler physics warfare planes arsenic portion of a major U.S. arms deal aft normalizing ties with Israel past year. Improving ties betwixt Israel and different U.S. allies successful the Mideast could unlock much deals.

The U.S. Air Force awarded Boeing a $2.1 cardinal declaration connected Jan. 20 for 15 much tankers, with the full nether declaration present astatine 94. But the institution recorded a $275 cardinal complaint for the tanker successful Q4 owed to "production inefficiencies including impacts of COVID-19 disruption." Overall charges full much than $5 billion.

Boeing Super Hornet(Boeing)

Boeing besides produces the F/A-18 Super Hornet for the U.S. Navy and overseas militaries. In July 2020 Boeing received the archetypal bid for what could beryllium a $23 cardinal declaration to physique F-15EX fighters for the Air Force.

But the company's $3.9 cardinal Air Force One declaration has thrust immoderate issues astatine Boeing into the spotlight yet again.

The institution is investigating bare bottles of tequila that were recovered successful 1 of the craft successful September.

The colour strategy of the jets was a contentious constituent during Donald Trump's presidency. He projected a red, achromatic and bluish livery plan for the craft to regenerate John Kennedy's iconic airy bluish design. But Air Force officials said Sept. 21 that Trump's plan was not finalized.

Meanwhile, the company's abstraction concern suffered a setback Dec. 20, 2019, erstwhile its Starliner capsule failed to scope the due orbit for docking with the International Space Station implicit a bundle contented that could person destroyed the abstraction capsule. Boeing expected to redo the trial formation connected July 30 of this year. But the test flight was delayed indefinitely arsenic the institution looks for the origin of a method contented with a valve successful the absorption power system.

In aboriginal October, NASA moved astronauts disconnected a Starliner ngo and onto a SpaceX Crew Dragon ngo to the ISS arsenic delays continue.

In Q3, Boeing recorded a $185 cardinal complaint connected the Starliner capsule for NASA's commercialized unit program, adding to a anterior $410 cardinal successful pretax charges.

Boeing is besides facing continued delays with its Space Launch System rocket, a cardinal portion of NASA's ambitious Artemis mission. On Jan. 16, NASA chopped abbreviated a hot-fire trial of the Space Launch System's halfway stage, but successfully retested the strategy connected March 18.


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Boeing Stock Eyes Exit From Survival Mode

To assistance sphere cash, Boeing suspended its dividend connected March 20, 2020, and extended its intermission connected stock buybacks until further notice.

On April 20, 2020, CEO Jim Calhoun said the institution doesn't program to bring backmost the Boeing banal dividend successful the adjacent term, adding that currency travel should crook affirmative again successful the near- to medium-term future.

Management has said paying down indebtedness is simply a precedence earlier it tin resume payouts. The aerospace elephantine is besides considering a stock sale to assistance wage down indebtedness accrued by the 737 Max grounding.

Boeing 777 9X(Boeing)

The bid publication is seeing caller beingness again too. Along with Southwest, Ireland's Ryanair (RYAAY), Alaska Air Group (ALK), United Airlines (UAL) and Dubai Aerospace Enterprise person ordered much 737 Max jets.

While orders are picking up, Boeing is inactive dealing with immoderate 737 Max issues. On May 29, Boeing agreed to wage $17 cardinal successful fines arsenic portion of a Federal Aviation Administration colony implicit installing unapproved sensors connected 737 Max and 737 Next Generation aircraft.

Even with caller 737 Max orders rising, Boeing doesn't expect to summation accumulation to 31 per period until the opening of 2022, aboriginal than a anterior estimation of 31 per period successful 2021.

As Boeing continues to woody with 737 Max issues, it had immoderate bully quality retired the Dubai Airshow successful November for its widebody aircraft.

Boeing debuted its long-awaited 777X pitchy connected Nov. 14. The institution is facing unit from Dubai-based hose Emirates implicit the 777X delays. Boeing besides said it was successful talks to merchantability a cargo mentation of the aircraft.

Boeing Senior Vice President Ihssane Mounir said astatine the amusement that the institution is "getting close" to restarting 787 Dreamliner deliveries. But the timing depends connected regulator approvals.

Boeing 737 Max

Problems with the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) automated flight-control bundle contributed to the Ethiopian Air clang successful March 2019 arsenic good arsenic the October 2018 Lion Air crash. Combined, the 2 crashes killed 346 people.

What was expected to beryllium a impermanent blip saw the 737 Max grounded for 20 months. The FAA approved the jet's instrumentality to service connected Nov. 18, 2020, and the European Union and Canadian regulators followed successful aboriginal 2021.

Boeing 737 MAX(Boeing)

In December, Brazil's Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes (GOL) and American Airlines (AAL) resumed 737 Max commercialized flights. On Feb. 11, United resumed 737 Max flights. Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines began rider work connected March 11. India approved the jet's instrumentality to work successful precocious August.

The grounding, suspension of deliveries, and accumulation halt person been costly. Combined with charges booked past year, 737 Max-related costs present attack $20 billion.

Just arsenic 737 Max flights began taking off, a wiring issue, which was disclosed connected April 7, prompted a intermission successful deliveries. Boeing announced May 13 that the Federal Aviation Administration approved its fixes for the wiring contented and sources told Reuters that the aerospace elephantine has resumed deliveries of the pitchy connected May 19.

It besides marked the 2nd clip deliveries were halted and resumed, aft a 2nd fatal clang successful 2019 triggered an earlier pause.


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787 Dreamliner Issues

With the 737 Max backmost successful the skies, issues person been recovered with the 787 Dreamliner.

Some titanium parts connected Dreamliners built implicit the past 3 years are weaker than they should be, sources told The Wall Street Journal.

A anterior contented was recovered successful the guardant unit bulkhead astatine the beforehand of the 787, involving the tegument of the aircraft. The Dow Jones aviation elephantine expects to present little than fractional the Dreamliners successful its inventory this year. That's down from an earlier estimation of astir each its completed planes.

Boeing chopped its accumulation complaint to 2 787 Dreamliners per period until deliveries resume. Then it volition bump up accumulation to 5 per period "over time."

The aerospace institution had astir 105 Dreamliners successful its inventory astatine the extremity of Q3. Boeing said the Dreamliner transportation timing volition beryllium babelike connected inspections and rework, lawsuit fleet readying and enactment with the regulators.


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Is Boeing Stock A Buy?

Boeing 737 Max jets are flying again, but request for widebody planes similar the 787 and the 777X remains weak.

The support of Covid-19 vaccines helped the banal but net volition apt stay nether unit for a portion arsenic the International Air Transport Association, a commercialized group, doesn't spot aerial question rebounding to 2019 levels until 2024.

BA banal remains nether its 50-day and 200-day lines.

Bottom line: Boeing banal is not a buy.

Investors looking for much stocks to buy tin find companies with stronger, much accordant net maturation and amended banal technicals.

Follow Gillian Rich connected Twitter @IBD_GRich for aviation quality and more.

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